Eagles vs Commanders – Week 16 2024
PHI
WAS
PHI
AWAY
33@36
WAS BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 33, Washington Commanders 36.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles, 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: PHI 64%Our line: PHI -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.212Net EPA / play+0.128
+0.114 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
-0.098 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
45.3% (13)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 7.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs WAS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.9. The market has PHI at -4.0.
Washington Commanders won, PHI 33, WAS 36. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -4.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 16, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.3 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.212 against WAS +0.128.
