Commanders vs Eagles – Week 1 2026
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
22@24
PHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 71%Our line: PHI -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.056Net EPA / play-0.196
-0.015 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (30)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.069 (24)
39.8% (27)Offense success %36.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 7.6. Actual: 2. Off by 5.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.6. The market has PHI at -5.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, WAS 22, PHI 24. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 1, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 0.0 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 24, PHI 17 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Washington Commanders: WAS -0.056 against PHI -0.196.
