Buccaneers vs Bengals – Week 1 2026
TB
CIN
TB
AWAY
27@33
CIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, Cincinnati Bengals 33.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Buccaneers, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 61%Our line: CIN -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.102
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (10)
-0.057 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (13)
40.9% (23)Offense success %47.1% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 3.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@TBW15 2022 | CIN 34, TB 23 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 3.8. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, TB 27, CIN 33. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 4.4 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 34, TB 23 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Cincinnati Bengals: TB -0.031 against CIN +0.102.
