Bills vs Texans – Week 1 2026
BUF
HOU
BUF
AWAY
36@31
BUF BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 36, Houston Texans 31.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: HOU 62%Our line: HOU -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.077Net EPA / play+0.048
+0.210 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (13)
+0.134 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (9)
49.1% (3)Offense success %42.4% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but BUF won. Projected margin was 4.2, the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@HOUW12 2025 | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| BUF@HOUW5 2024 | BUF 20, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| HOU@BUFW4 2021 | HOU 0, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 4.2. The market has HOU at +1.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 36, HOU 31. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at +1.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 1.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 0.9 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, BUF 19, HOU 23 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.077 against HOU +0.048.
