BUF @ HOU – Week 1 2026
BUF
HOU
BUF
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 1 · 2026 SEASON
HOU
HOME
OUR PICK
TIER C
PICK: HOU
Model confidence: HOU 62%Projected margin: -2.6
HOU
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-2.6
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
+100
LIVE ML
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our C-tier play in BUF @ HOU (Week 1, 2026). The model assigns 62.0% confidence and projects HOU by 2.6. Market spread sits at HOU +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split — the model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | +100 | Last observed market ML |
MODEL IMPLIED
44.6%
MARKET IMPLIED
50.0%
MODEL EDGE
-5.4%
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@HOUW12 2025 | BUF 19, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| BUF@HOUW5 2024 | BUF 20, HOU 23 | BUF | L |
| HOU@BUFW4 2021 | HOU 0, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
