Dolphins vs Raiders – Week 1 2026
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
13@27
LV BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: MIA 70%Our line: MIA -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.224Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (14)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
37.6% (30)Offense success %42.6% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but LV won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 20.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LV
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.9. The market has MIA at +3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, MIA 13, LV 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at +3.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 1, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.5, 3.0 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Miami Dolphins, LV 19, MIA 34 in Week 11 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Las Vegas Raiders: MIA -0.224 against LV -0.001.
