MIA @ LV – Week 1 2026
MIA
LV
MIA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 1 · 2026 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
Model confidence: MIA 70%Projected margin: -4.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
-4.4
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
+164
LIVE ML
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors MIA (B-tier, 70% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
MIA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
OVER EDGE
Model projects 43.5 total points vs the 40.5 line. That's a 3.0-point over edge.
H2H EDGE
MIA has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against LV.
Net-positive signal profile for MIA. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | +164 | Last observed market ML |
MODEL IMPLIED
37.7%
MARKET IMPLIED
37.9%
MODEL EDGE
-0.1%
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2024 | LV 19, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
