Jets vs Titans – Week 1 2026
NYJ
TEN
NYJ
AWAY
23@10
NYJ BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 23, Tennessee Titans 10.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 1 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 60%Our line: TEN -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.037Net EPA / play-0.228
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.149 (31)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (25)
42.8% (16)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 16.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
90°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@TENW2 2024 | NYJ 24, TEN 17 | NYJ | W |
| TEN@NYJW4 2021 | TEN 24, NYJ 27 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 3.6. The market has TEN at -1.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 23, TEN 10. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -1.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 1, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.3, 3.8 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 24, TEN 17 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: NYJ +0.037 against TEN -0.228.
