Cardinals vs Chargers – Week 1 2026
ARI
LAC
ARI
AWAY
26@14
ARI BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 1
2026 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 75%Our line: LAC -9.0
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.142Net EPA / play-0.150
-0.018 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.207 (32)
+0.124 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (6)
45.9% (12)Offense success %37.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC A+-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but ARI won. Projected margin was 9.0, the model overestimated by 21.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 21.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@ARIW7 2024 | LAC 15, ARI 17 | ARI | W |
| LAC@ARIW12 2022 | LAC 25, ARI 24 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LAC by 9.0. The market has LAC at -9.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 26, LAC 14. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -9.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 0.7 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 1 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, LAC 15, ARI 17 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI -0.142 against LAC -0.150.
