Chargers vs Cardinals – Week 12 2022
LAC
ARI
LAC
AWAY
25@24
LAC BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 25, Arizona Cardinals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 5 Cardinals.
Model confidence: LAC 61%Our line: LAC -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.104
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
44.1% (18)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.6. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LACW1 2026 | ARI 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LAC@ARIW7 2024 | LAC 15, ARI 17 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs ARI
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.6. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 25, ARI 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 2.7 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 26, LAC 14 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against ARI -0.104.
