Packers vs Eagles – Week 12 2022
GB
PHI
GB
AWAY
33@40
PHI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 33, Philadelphia Eagles 40.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers.
Model confidence: PHI 69%Our line: PHI -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.172
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.107 (3)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.064 (5)
45.8% (7)Offense success %48.3% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 6.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
HIGH WIND
24 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
24 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@GBW10 2025 | PHI 10, GB 7 | PHI | W |
| GB@PHIW1 2024 | GB 29, PHI 34 | GB | L |
| PHI@GBW13 2020 | PHI 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.6. The market has PHI at -6.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, GB 33, PHI 40. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.1 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 10, GB 7 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: GB -0.034 against PHI +0.172.
