Bears vs Jets – Week 12 2022
CHI
NYJ
CHI
AWAY
10@31
NYJ BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 10, New York Jets 31.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: NYJ 64%Our line: NYJ -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.036
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.087 (27)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
40.5% (27)Offense success %39.0% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 21. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CHIW4 2026 | NYJ 12, CHI 23 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs NYJ
Our model takes New York Jets at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYJ by 4.9. The market has NYJ at -8.5.
New York Jets won, CHI 10, NYJ 31. Our model had favored New York Jets at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Jets at -8.5, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 12, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 7.5 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NYJ 12, CHI 23 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Jets: CHI -0.164 against NYJ -0.036.
