CHI @ NYJ – Week 12 2022
CHI
NYJ
CHI
AWAY
10@31
NYJ BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: NYJ 64%Our line: NYJ -4.9
NYJ
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.036
-0.046Offense EPA / play-0.087
+0.118Defense EPA / play-0.051
40.5%Offense success %39.0%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NYJ. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 21. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +315 | -375 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYJ -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for NYJ. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2242 yd · 17 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields1143 yd · 8 TD
David Montgomery801 yd · 5 TD
Khalil Herbert731 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Cole Kmet50 rec · 544 yd · 7 TD
Darnell Mooney40 rec · 493 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Jets at 64% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NYJ by 4.9. The market has NYJ at -8.5.
The model projects 44.0 combined points. The market total is 36.5.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Jets: CHI -0.164 against NYJ -0.036.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
