Falcons vs Commanders – Week 12 2022
ATL
WAS
ATL
AWAY
13@19
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 13, Washington Commanders 19.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 61%Our line: WAS -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
45.5% (10)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 3.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ATLW4 2025 | WAS 27, ATL 34 | WAS | L |
| ATL@WASW17 2024 | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW6 2023 | WAS 24, ATL 16 | ATL | L |
| WAS@ATLW4 2021 | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 3.8. The market has WAS at -3.5.
Washington Commanders won, ATL 13, WAS 19. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -3.5, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 6.7 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, WAS 27, ATL 34 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: ATL -0.075 against WAS -0.003.
