Broncos vs Panthers – Week 12 2022
DEN
CAR
DEN
AWAY
10@23
CAR BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 10, Carolina Panthers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Broncos, 5 Panthers.
Model confidence: DEN 56%Our line: DEN -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
38.1% (31)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 15.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DENW8 2024 | CAR 14, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| DEN@CARW14 2020 | DEN 32, CAR 27 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CAR
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 2.1. The market has DEN at -1.0.
Carolina Panthers won, DEN 10, CAR 23. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -1.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Denver Broncos were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 7.9 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, CAR 14, DEN 28 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Carolina Panthers: DEN -0.060 against CAR -0.037.
