Patriots vs Vikings – Week 12 2022
NE
MIN
NE
AWAY
26@33
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 26, Minnesota Vikings 33.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.011 (19)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (21)
40.9% (24)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIN
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.1. The market has NE at +2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, NE 26, MIN 33. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 12, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, THU 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against MIN -0.023.
