NE @ MIN – Week 12 2022
NE
MIN
NE
AWAY
26@33
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.1
NE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.1
OUR LINE
-144
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.054Offense EPA / play-0.011
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.012
40.9%Offense success %44.9%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIN won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +123 | -136 |
| Our fair price | -144 | +144 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
44%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.1. The market has NE at +2.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, THU 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against MIN -0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
