NO @ SF – Week 12 2022
NO
SF
NO
AWAY
0@13
SF BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 70%Our line: SF -7.0
SF
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.0
OUR LINE
-230
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.211
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.085
-0.056Defense EPA / play-0.126
45.7%Offense success %46.2%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 7.0. Actual: 13. Off by 6.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +327 | -392 |
| Our fair price | +230 | -230 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2 SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara897 yd · 2 TD
Mark Ingram233 yd · 1 TD
Rashid Shaheed57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave72 rec · 1042 yd · 4 TD
Juwan Johnson42 rec · 508 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@NOW2 2025 | SF 26, NO 21 | SF | W |
| SF@NOW10 2020 | SF 13, NO 27 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 7.0. The market has SF at -9.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 26, NO 21 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: NO +0.018 against SF +0.211.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
