2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ MIA – Week 12 2022
HOU
MIA
HOU
AWAY
15@30
MIA +15
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER S
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 80%Projected margin: 10.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
10.1
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 10.1. Actual: 15. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -822 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@HOUW15 2024 | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES