Texans vs Dolphins – Week 12 2022
HOU
MIA
HOU
AWAY
15@30
MIA BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 15, Miami Dolphins 30.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 80%Our line: MIA -11.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -11.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
36.9% (32)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 11.1. Actual: 15. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@HOUW15 2024 | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project MIA by 11.1. The market has MIA at -14.0.
Miami Dolphins won, HOU 15, MIA 30. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -14.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 12, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.4 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, MIA 12, HOU 20 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: HOU -0.192 against MIA +0.039.
