HOU @ MIA – Week 12 2022
HOU
MIA
HOU
AWAY
15@30
MIA BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 80%Our line: MIA -11.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-11.1
OUR LINE
-388
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.189Offense EPA / play+0.047
+0.003Defense EPA / play+0.008
36.9%Offense success %44.5%
45.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 11.1. Actual: 15. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +613 | -822 |
| Our fair price | +388 | -388 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5 SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
Chris Moore48 rec · 548 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@HOUW15 2024 | MIA 12, HOU 20 | HOU | W |
| HOU@MIAW9 2021 | HOU 9, MIA 17 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project MIA by 11.1. The market has MIA at -14.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, MIA 12, HOU 20 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: HOU -0.192 against MIA +0.039.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
