Raiders vs Seahawks – Week 12 2022
LV
SEA
LV
AWAY
40@34
LV BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 40, Seattle Seahawks 34.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 65%Our line: SEA -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.003 (18)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.020 (25)
43.1% (21)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but LV won. Projected margin was 5.4, the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SEA
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.4. The market has SEA at -4.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 40, SEA 34. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -4.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 12, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.2 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Seattle Seahawks: LV -0.064 against SEA -0.023.
