Ravens vs Jaguars – Week 12 2022
BAL
JAX
BAL
AWAY
27@28
JAX BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 28.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.004 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
-0.014 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
45.3% (11)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW15 2023 | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL | W |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs JAX
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.0. The market has BAL at -3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, BAL 27, JAX 28. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, JAX 7 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: BAL +0.019 against JAX +0.067.
