2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ JAX – Week 12 2022
BAL
JAX
BAL
AWAY
27@28
JAX +1
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 67%Projected margin: -4.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 4.9 -- the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -164 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW15 2023 | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL | W |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES