BAL @ JAX – Week 12 2022
BAL
JAX
BAL
AWAY
27@28
JAX BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 12
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -6.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-205
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.019Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.004Offense EPA / play+0.046
-0.014Defense EPA / play-0.021
45.3%Offense success %46.3%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but JAX won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 7.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BAL | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -164 | +147 |
| Our fair price | -205 | +205 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
236.1 SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
190.5 SEASON PPR
Devin Duvernay
WR
116.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
Lamar Jackson2242 yd · 17 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Lamar Jackson764 yd · 3 TD
J.K. Dobbins520 yd · 2 TD
Kenyan Drake482 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Mark Andrews73 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
Demarcus Robinson48 rec · 458 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW15 2023 | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL | W |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.0. The market has BAL at -3.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 12 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, JAX 7 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: BAL +0.019 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
