Ravens vs Jaguars – Week 15 2023
BAL
JAX
BAL
AWAY
23@7
BAL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 7.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.215Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
47.4% (3)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 4.2. Actual: 16. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW12 2022 | BAL 27, JAX 28 | BAL | L |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs JAX
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.2. The market has BAL at -4.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 23, JAX 7. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -4.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 15, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, BAL 27, JAX 28 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against JAX -0.034.
