2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ JAX – Week 15 2023
BAL
JAX
BAL
AWAY
23@7
BAL +16
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BAL 62%Projected margin: -2.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-2.1
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 2.1. Actual: 16. Off by 13.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -225 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
331.2SEASON PPR
Zay Flowers
WR
206.4SEASON PPR
Gus Edwards
RB
187.0SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW12 2022 | BAL 27, JAX 28 | BAL | L |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES