MIN @ CIN – Week 15 2023
MIN
CIN
MIN
AWAY
24@27
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 62%Our line: CIN -4.0
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-161
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.044
-0.041Offense EPA / play-0.010
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.034
42.4%Offense success %44.0%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 4.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +161 | -161 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3 SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
202.2 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson68 rec · 1074 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson95 rec · 960 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MINW3 2025 | CIN 10, MIN 48 | CIN | L |
| MIN@CINW1 2021 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.0. The market has CIN at -3.0.
The model projects 45.2 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, CIN 10, MIN 48 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against CIN -0.044.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
