Vikings vs Bengals – Week 15 2023
MIN
CIN
MIN
AWAY
24@27
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 24, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: CIN 62%Our line: CIN -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -4.0
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.044
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
42.4% (13)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 4.0. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MINW3 2025 | CIN 10, MIN 48 | CIN | L |
| MIN@CINW1 2021 | MIN 24, CIN 27 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 4.0. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, MIN 24, CIN 27. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 3.7 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, CIN 10, MIN 48 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against CIN -0.044.
