2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ GB – Week 15 2023
TB
GB
TB
AWAY
34@20
TB +14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 63%Projected margin: 2.8
GB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but TB won. Projected margin was 2.8 -- the model overestimated by 16.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
GB
Jordan Love
QB
319.1SEASON PPR
Jayden Reed
WR
217.2SEASON PPR
Romeo Doubs
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES