TB @ GB – Week 15 2023
TB
GB
TB
AWAY
34@20
TB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.6
GB
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.6
OUR LINE
-172
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.056
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.064
-0.024Defense EPA / play+0.008
39.6%Offense success %44.6%
43.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but TB won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 18.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 |
| Our fair price | +172 | -172 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5 SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1 SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Baker Mayfield4044 yd · 28 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rachaad White990 yd · 6 TD
Chase Edmonds176 yd · 0 TD
Baker Mayfield163 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans79 rec · 1255 yd · 13 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.83 rec · 1024 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.6. The market has GB at -4.0.
The model projects 45.0 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 14, TB 12 in Week 3 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: TB +0.007 against GB +0.056.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
