Buccaneers vs Packers – Week 15 2023
TB
GB
TB
AWAY
34@20
TB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Green Bay Packers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.056
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
39.6% (27)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but TB won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 18.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 18.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@TBW4 2026 | GB 17, TB 14 | GB | W |
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.6. The market has GB at -4.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 34, GB 20. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 15, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 17, TB 14 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: TB +0.007 against GB +0.056.
