GB @ TB – Week 4 2026
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: TB 59%Projected margin: -0.8
TB
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.115Offense EPA / play-0.009
+0.033Defense EPA / play+0.013
47.7%Offense success %42.4%
44.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
TB is our C-tier play in GB @ TB (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 58.7% confidence and projects TB by 0.8. Market spread sits at TB +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
T.Kraft32 rec · 489 yd · 6 TD
M.Golden29 rec · 361 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,381PASSyds3,693
1,624RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs TB
Who is favored in Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.8. The market has TB at +1.5.
When do the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 34-20 in Week 15 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Green Bay Packers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
