Packers vs Buccaneers – Week 4 2026
GB
TB
GB
AWAY
17@14
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Packers, 4 Buccaneers.
A midweek injury update moved the Packers from 58% to 59%.
Model confidence: GB 59%Our line: GB -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.021 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
-0.039 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (7)
40.7% (24)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
86°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love1408 yd · 10 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
M.Lloyd112 yd · 2 TD
K.Johnson106 yd · 0 TD
C.Brooks70 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Watson26 rec · 474 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@GBW15 2023 | TB 34, GB 20 | GB | L |
| GB@TBW3 2022 | GB 14, TB 12 | TB | L |
| GB@TBW6 2020 | GB 10, TB 38 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs TB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 3.1. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 17, TB 14. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.2, 3.7 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 34, GB 20 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.018 against TB -0.031.
