Colts vs Commanders – Week 4 2026
IND
WAS
IND
AWAY
30@13
IND BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, Washington Commanders 13.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders.
A midweek injury update switched the pick from the Commanders (60%) to the Colts (50%).
Model confidence: IND 50%Our line: IND +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.150Net EPA / play-0.056
-0.051 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (15)
+0.099 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
42.2% (19)Offense success %39.8% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 17. Off by 17.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@INDW8 2022 | WAS 17, IND 16 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs WAS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.0. The market has IND at -4.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 30, WAS 13. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -4.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 17, IND 16 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Washington Commanders: IND -0.150 against WAS -0.056.
