IND @ WAS – Week 4 2026
IND
WAS
IND
AWAY
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
WAS
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: WAS 59%Projected margin: -1.4
WAS
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-1.4
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.004Defense EPA / play+0.142
46.3%Offense success %45.6%
45.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
WAS is our C-tier play in IND @ WAS (Week 4, 2026). The model assigns 59.5% confidence and projects WAS by 1.4. Market spread sits at WAS -1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
M.Pittman80 rec · 784 yd · 7 TD
J.Downs58 rec · 566 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,101PASSyds1,695
1,845RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@INDW8 2022 | WAS 17, IND 16 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs WAS
Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 1.4. The market has WAS at -1.5.
When do the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Who won the last Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders game?
Washington Commanders, 17-16 in Week 8 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Indianapolis Colts or the Washington Commanders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.068 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
