Chiefs vs Raiders – Week 4 2026
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
30@27
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2026 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: KC 62%Our line: KC -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.222Net EPA / play-0.001
+0.172 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (14)
-0.050 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
48.6% (5)Offense success %42.6%
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LV
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.2. The market has KC at -4.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 30, LV 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -4.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 0.3 below the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, KC 12, LV 14 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.222 against LV -0.001.
