KC @ LV – Week 4 2026
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 4 · 2026 SEASON
LV
HOME
Model confidence: KC 63%Projected margin: -1.7
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.035Offense EPA / play-0.215
-0.020Defense EPA / play+0.024
44.5%Offense success %37.6%
43.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
KC backed by epa edge at 63%.
EPA EDGE
KC generates 0.035 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
KC is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
KC goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
H2H EDGE
KC has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
DRIVE EFF
KC scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in KC's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Kansas City ChiefsPASSING
P.Mahomes3587 yd · 22 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
K.Hunt611 yd · 8 TD
I.Pacheco462 yd · 1 TD
P.Mahomes422 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
T.Kelce76 rec · 851 yd · 5 TD
M.Brown49 rec · 587 yd · 5 TD
R.Rice53 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
X.Worthy42 rec · 532 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,587PASSyds3,025
1,495RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@KCW18 2026 | — | KC | — |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LV
Who is favored in Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders?
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 1.7. The market has KC at -5.5.
When do the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders play?
Week 4 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders game?
Las Vegas Raiders, 12-14 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Kansas City Chiefs or the Las Vegas Raiders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.055 against LV -0.240.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
