Chiefs vs Raiders – Week 18 2025
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
12@14
LV BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 12, Las Vegas Raiders 14.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 3 Raiders.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.240
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.215 (32)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (21)
44.5% (14)Offense success %37.6% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LV won. Projected margin was 8.2, the model overestimated by 10.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
LV
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | KC 30, LV 27 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW16 2023 | LV 20, KC 14 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LV
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project KC by 8.2. The market has KC at -3.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, KC 12, LV 14. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, LV 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.055 against LV -0.240.
