Cardinals vs Rams – Week 18 2025
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
20@37
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 20, Los Angeles Rams 37.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 4 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 82%Our line: LA -12.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -12.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.206
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
43.0% (22)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 12.5. Actual: 17. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW6 2026 | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 12.5. The market has LA at -14.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, ARI 20, LA 37. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -14.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 18, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 2.1 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 18, LA 16 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: ARI -0.107 against LA +0.206.
