2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ LA – Week 18 2025
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
20@37
LA +17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER S
PICK: LA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LA 82%Projected margin: 11.7
LA
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
11.7
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 11.7. Actual: 17. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW6 2023 | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES