LA @ ARI – Week 14 2025
LA
ARI
LA
AWAY
45@17
LA BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: LA 78%Our line: LA -10.6
LA
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.6
OUR LINE
-361
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.206Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.145Offense EPA / play-0.018
-0.061Defense EPA / play+0.088
51.8%Offense success %43.0%
42.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 10.6. Actual: 28. Off by 17.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -500 | +380 |
| Our fair price | -361 | +361 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0 SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4 SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford4707 yd · 46 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1252 yd · 10 TD
B.Corum746 yd · 6 TD
P.Nacua105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua129 rec · 1715 yd · 10 TD
D.Adams60 rec · 789 yd · 14 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
| LA@ARIW12 2023 | LA 37, ARI 14 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW6 2023 | ARI 9, LA 26 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LA by 10.6. The market has LA at -9.5.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, ARI 20, LA 37 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
