IND @ JAX – Week 14 2025
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
19@36
JAX BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 60%Our line: JAX -3.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.4
OUR LINE
-149
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.004Defense EPA / play-0.105
46.3%Offense success %44.4%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 17. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 | +114 |
| Our fair price | +149 | -149 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
362.3 SEASON PPR
D.Jones
QB
226.4 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
D.Jones3101 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1585 yd · 18 TD
D.Jones164 yd · 5 TD
D.Giddens96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce47 rec · 1003 yd · 6 TD
T.Warren76 rec · 817 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.4. The market has JAX at +2.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: IND +0.068 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
