Colts vs Jaguars – Week 14 2025
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
19@36
JAX BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 36.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 60%Our line: JAX -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.068Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.072 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
+0.004 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
46.3% (8)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 17. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.4. The market has JAX at +2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, IND 19, JAX 36. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +2.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: IND +0.068 against JAX +0.136.
