Saints vs Buccaneers – Week 14 2025
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
24@20
NO BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 76%Our line: TB -9.7
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -9.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.029Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
42.0% (26)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NO won. Projected margin was 9.7, the model overestimated by 13.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 9.7. The market has TB at -7.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 24, TB 20. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 14, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 4.3 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 23, NO 3 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NO -0.029 against TB -0.022.
