TEN @ CLE – Week 14 2025
TEN
CLE
TEN
AWAY
31@29
TEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 68%Our line: CLE -6.4
CLE
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-213
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.160Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.100Defense EPA / play-0.096
37.4%Offense success %34.5%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 8.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 |
| Our fair price | +213 | -213 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7 SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8 SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@CLEW3 2023 | TEN 3, CLE 27 | CLE | W |
| CLE@TENW13 2020 | CLE 41, TEN 35 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.4. The market has CLE at -4.5.
The model projects 45.1 combined points. The market total is 33.5.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, TEN 3, CLE 27 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: TEN -0.260 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
