Titans vs Browns – Week 3 2023
TEN
CLE
TEN
AWAY
3@27
CLE BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 3, Cleveland Browns 27.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 63%Our line: CLE -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -4.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
39.7% (26)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 4.6. Actual: 24. Off by 19.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@CLEW14 2025 | TEN 31, CLE 29 | CLE | L |
| CLE@TENW13 2020 | CLE 41, TEN 35 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 4.6. The market has CLE at -3.5.
Cleveland Browns won, TEN 3, CLE 27. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 8.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 31, CLE 29 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: TEN -0.055 against CLE +0.045.
