2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ JAX – Week 3 2023
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
37@17
HOU +20
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 76%Projected margin: 8.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
8.4
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX A+-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but HOU won. Projected margin was 8.4 -- the model overestimated by 28.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 27.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -380 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
167.3SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES