Chargers vs Vikings – Week 3 2023
LAC
MIN
LAC
AWAY
28@24
LAC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 28, Minnesota Vikings 24.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 1 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 58%Our line: MIN -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.023
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.041 (17)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (20)
41.0% (22)Offense success %42.4% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 6.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@LACW8 2025 | MIN 10, LAC 37 | LAC | W |
| MIN@LACW10 2021 | MIN 27, LAC 20 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.6. The market has MIN at -1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 28, MIN 24. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -1.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 7.9 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, MIN 10, LAC 37 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: LAC -0.088 against MIN -0.023.
