2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ WAS – Week 3 2023
BUF
WAS
BUF
AWAY
37@3
BUF +34
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 70%Projected margin: -5.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 34. Off by 28.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -245 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
1 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
232.7SEASON PPR
WAS
Sam Howell
QB
257.5SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
203.2SEASON PPR
Brian Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@BUFW3 2021 | WAS 21, BUF 43 | BUF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES