Bills vs Commanders – Week 3 2023
BUF
WAS
BUF
AWAY
37@3
BUF BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 37, Washington Commanders 3.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: BUF 70%Our line: BUF -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.182Net EPA / play-0.190
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.106 (27)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.085 (31)
49.0% (2)Offense success %41.0% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 34. Off by 26.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
1 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@BUFW3 2021 | WAS 21, BUF 43 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs WAS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.2. The market has BUF at -5.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 37, WAS 3. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -5.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 3, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, WAS 21, BUF 43 in Week 3 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against WAS -0.190.
