Falcons vs Lions – Week 3 2023
ATL
DET
ATL
AWAY
6@20
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 6, Detroit Lions 20.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 60%Our line: DET -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.040Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
41.1% (20)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 14. Off by 10.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ATLW16 2021 | DET 16, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
| DET@ATLW7 2020 | DET 23, ATL 22 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 3.5. The market has DET at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, ATL 6, DET 20. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Detroit Lions were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 0.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DET 16, ATL 20 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: ATL -0.040 against DET +0.093.
