ATL @ DET – Week 3 2023
ATL
DET
ATL
AWAY
6@20
DET BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 60%Our line: DET -3.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-151
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.040Net EPA / play+0.093
-0.099Offense EPA / play+0.064
-0.059Defense EPA / play-0.029
41.1%Offense success %46.1%
39.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 14. Off by 10.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -166 |
| Our fair price | +151 | -151 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
Bijan Robinson
RB
246.3 SEASON PPR
Desmond Ridder
QB
177.1 SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
174.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Bijan Robinson976 yd · 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier683 yd · 4 TD
Desmond Ridder193 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Drake London69 rec · 905 yd · 2 TD
Kyle Pitts53 rec · 667 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ATLW16 2021 | DET 16, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
| DET@ATLW7 2020 | DET 23, ATL 22 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 3.5. The market has DET at -3.0.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 3 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, DET 16, ATL 20 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: ATL -0.040 against DET +0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
