Lions vs Falcons – Week 7 2020
DET
ATL
DET
AWAY
23@22
DET BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 7
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 23, Atlanta Falcons 22.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions.
Model confidence: ATL 55%Our line: ATL -1.5
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -1.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.042
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
44.3% (21)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but DET won. Projected margin was 1.5, the model overestimated by 2.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DETW3 2023 | ATL 6, DET 20 | DET | W |
| DET@ATLW16 2021 | DET 16, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 1.5. The market has ATL at -1.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 23, ATL 22. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 55% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 7, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 7.1 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, ATL 6, DET 20 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Atlanta Falcons: DET -0.208 against ATL -0.042.
