Lions vs Falcons – Week 16 2021
DET
ATL
DET
AWAY
16@20
ATL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 16, Atlanta Falcons 20.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 56%Our line: ATL -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.161Net EPA / play-0.180
-0.063 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
+0.098 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
42.0% (22)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 2.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DETW3 2023 | ATL 6, DET 20 | DET | W |
| DET@ATLW7 2020 | DET 23, ATL 22 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 2.1. The market has ATL at -7.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, DET 16, ATL 20. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -7.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 16, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, ATL 6, DET 20 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.161 against ATL -0.180.
