2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ ATL – Week 16 2021
DET
ATL
DET
AWAY
16@20
ATL +4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: ATL 56%Projected margin: 2.6
ATL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 2.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -373 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5SEASON PPR
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@DETW3 2023 | ATL 6, DET 20 | DET | W |
| DET@ATLW7 2020 | DET 23, ATL 22 | ATL | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES