Browns vs Packers – Week 16 2021
CLE
GB
CLE
AWAY
22@24
GB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 22, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 4 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 63%Our line: GB -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.127
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.134 (3)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (16)
43.9% (19)Offense success %48.6% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 4.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.6. The market has GB at -7.5.
Green Bay Packers won, CLE 22, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 16, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Cleveland Browns, GB 10, CLE 13 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: CLE +0.012 against GB +0.127.
