Giants vs Eagles – Week 16 2021
NYG
PHI
NYG
AWAY
10@34
PHI BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 10, Philadelphia Eagles 34.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants.
Model confidence: PHI 63%Our line: PHI -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
39.3% (30)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 24. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW18 2023 | PHI 10, NYG 27 | PHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.4. The market has PHI at -11.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, NYG 10, PHI 34. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -11.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 16, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 6.7 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, NYG 20, PHI 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: NYG -0.192 against PHI +0.059.
