Steelers vs Chiefs – Week 16 2021
PIT
KC
PIT
AWAY
10@36
KC BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 10, Kansas City Chiefs 36.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers.
Model confidence: KC 67%Our line: KC -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.119
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
39.1% (31)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 26. Off by 20.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
HIGH WIND
22 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
22 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@PITW17 2024 | KC 29, PIT 10 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 5.9. The market has KC at -10.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, PIT 10, KC 36. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 16, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.7 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 29, PIT 10 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: PIT -0.090 against KC +0.119.
