2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ KC – Week 16 2021
PIT
KC
PIT
AWAY
10@36
KC +26
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 67%Projected margin: 8.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
8.1
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 26. Off by 17.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
HIGH WIND
22 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -400 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
22 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@PITW17 2024 | KC 29, PIT 10 | KC | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES