49ers vs Titans – Week 16 2021
SF
TEN
SF
AWAY
17@20
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 17, Tennessee Titans 20.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: SF 52%Our line: SF -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -0.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
45.7% (12)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but TEN won. Projected margin was 0.6, the model overestimated by 3.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@SFW15 2025 | TEN 24, SF 37 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs TEN
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 0.6. The market has SF at -3.5.
Tennessee Titans won, SF 17, TEN 20. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, TEN 24, SF 37 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against TEN +0.055.
