Commanders vs Cowboys – Week 16 2021
WAS
DAL
WAS
AWAY
14@56
DAL BY 42
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 14, Dallas Cowboys 56.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders, 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 62%Our line: DAL -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.124Net EPA / play+0.187
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
43.9% (20)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 4.2. Actual: 42. Off by 37.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 31.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@DALW2 2026 | WAS 20, DAL 37 | DAL | W |
| DAL@WASW17 2025 | DAL 30, WAS 23 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW7 2025 | WAS 22, DAL 44 | DAL | W |
| WAS@DALW18 2024 | WAS 23, DAL 19 | DAL | L |
| DAL@WASW12 2024 | DAL 34, WAS 26 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.2. The market has DAL at -10.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, WAS 14, DAL 56. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -10.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 16, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, WAS 20, DAL 37 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: WAS -0.124 against DAL +0.187.
