Rams vs Vikings – Week 16 2021
LA
MIN
LA
AWAY
30@23
LA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 30, Minnesota Vikings 23.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: LA 54%Our line: LA -1.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -1.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.102Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.077 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
-0.025 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
46.4% (11)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 1.2. Actual: 7. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4886 yd · 41 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
Sony Michel845 yd · 4 TD
Darrell Henderson688 yd · 5 TD
Robert Woods46 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs MIN
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 1.2. The market has LA at -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, LA 30, MIN 23. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, MIN 20, LA 30 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.102 against MIN +0.035.
