Broncos vs Raiders – Week 16 2021
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
13@17
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 13, Las Vegas Raiders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: DEN 53%Our line: DEN -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -0.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.004Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
44.7% (14)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.9. The market has DEN at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, DEN 13, LV 17. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -1.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 16, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 2.7 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.004 against LV -0.064.
