2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NO – Week 16 2021
MIA
NO
MIA
AWAY
20@3
MIA +17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 52%Projected margin: -0.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 0.5. Actual: 17. Off by 16.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -160 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
Jaylen Waddle
WR
247.8SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
173.6SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MIAW13 2025 | NO 17, MIA 21 | MIA | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES