Dolphins vs Saints – Week 16 2021
MIA
NO
MIA
AWAY
20@3
MIA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2021 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 20, New Orleans Saints 3.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: MIA 52%Our line: MIA -0.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -0.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.035
-0.059 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (24)
-0.028 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.109 (2)
41.3% (25)Offense success %40.6% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 17. Off by 16.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa2653 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin612 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson330 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed149 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@MIAW13 2025 | NO 17, MIA 21 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NO
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.6. The market has MIA at -3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 20, NO 3. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -3.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 8.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Miami Dolphins, NO 17, MIA 21 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: MIA -0.031 against NO +0.035.
