WHERE WE DIVERGE FROM VEGAS

Correlation with the betting market, 0–1 (higher = more aligned). Our pure model tracks the market at 0.80 on wins and picks the same game favorite 83%of the time — credible, but with its own opinions. The model’s win-total spread is 71%of the market’s: a pure preseason model is deliberately more conservative about calling a team great or terrible.

Cardinals

model 7.5 vs market 4.5 wins

+2.9

Dolphins

model 7.1 vs market 5.0 wins

+2.1

Bengals

model 7.9 vs market 10.0 wins

-2.1

Browns

model 8.1 vs market 6.5 wins

+1.6

Falcons

model 8.4 vs market 6.8 wins

+1.5

Seahawks

model 9.3 vs market 10.6 wins

-1.3

Cowboys

model 7.8 vs market 9.0 wins

-1.3

Colts

model 9.0 vs market 7.9 wins

+1.1

Green = our model is higher than the market; red = lower. These are the teams to watch: either the model sees value the market hasn’t priced, or the market knows something an EPA-based model can’t (a QB situation, a gutted roster). We show it rather than quietly bend our number toward the line.

TEAM	WINS (M)	WINS (VEGAS)	PLAYOFF (M)	PLAYOFF (V)	SB (M)	SB (V)
Bills	10.3	10.2	78%	76%	10.9%	7.7%
Lions	10.2	10.3	69%	67%	7.3%	4.6%
Eagles	10.1	9.9	70%	65%	6.1%	5.1%
Rams	9.9	10.8	67%	78%	6.7%	11.7%
Ravens	9.9	10.6	68%	76%	6.3%	7.7%
Broncos	9.8	9.5	68%	60%	5.1%	3.6%
Packers	9.5	9.8	58%	60%	5.2%	4.9%
Patriots	9.3	9.8	60%	67%	4.8%	5.2%
Seahawks	9.3	10.6	55%	74%	3.9%	8.6%
Texans	9.1	9.4	57%	60%	3.7%	4.1%
Chiefs	9.1	9.9	55%	68%	4.0%	5.8%
49ers	9.1	9.8	50%	60%	3.6%	4.8%
Jaguars	9.0	8.9	54%	51%	3.4%	2.4%
Colts	9.0	7.9	53%	32%	3.1%	1.0%
Buccaneers	8.8	8.3	49%	45%	2.6%	1.4%
Vikings	8.8	8.5	44%	34%	2.5%	1.3%
Chargers	8.6	9.5	46%	60%	2.9%	4.3%
Steelers	8.4	8.2	42%	34%	2.2%	1.6%
Bears	8.4	9.3	39%	49%	2.9%	3.4%
Falcons	8.4	6.8	41%	20%	2.3%	0.3%
Commanders	8.4	7.8	38%	25%	2.0%	0.8%
Saints	8.2	7.7	35%	30%	1.3%	0.5%
Browns	8.1	6.5	36%	13%	1.4%	0.2%
Bengals	7.9	10.0	31%	67%	1.1%	4.1%
Cowboys	7.8	9.0	28%	47%	1.2%	3.0%
Cardinals	7.5	4.5	22%	1%	0.9%	0.0%
Giants	7.2	7.6	20%	22%	0.7%	0.8%
Dolphins	7.1	5.0	23%	3%	1.0%	0.1%
Panthers	6.6	7.1	15%	23%	0.4%	0.5%
Raiders	6.1	6.2	10%	9%	0.2%	0.2%
Jets	6.1	6.0	10%	9%	0.2%	0.1%
Titans	6.0	6.7	10%	14%	0.2%	0.2%

(M) = our model · (V/Vegas) = the market. Market numbers are derived by fitting team ratings to the 272 DK opening lines and running the identical simulation — so it’s the same engine, our ratings vs the market’s. Our model never sees a betting line.