LV @ DEN – Week 11 2026
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 86%Projected margin: -14.4
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-14.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.050
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.088
37.6%Offense success %44.2%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 86%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates 0.050 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
DEN has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
RED ZONE
DEN converts 82% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DEN scores 1.7 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 14.4-point margin.
Multiple signals align in DEN's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds3,931
1,188RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW15 2026 | — | DEN | — |
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 86% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 14.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos game?
Denver Broncos, 24-17 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: LV -0.240 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
