Raiders vs Broncos – Week 11 2026
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Raiders at 80% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 80%Our line: DEN -11.4
80% range around our line: LV by 6 to DEN by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -11.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
80%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
75%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SPORTSBOOK | LV | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.041
+0.004 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
+0.005 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
42.6% (17)Offense success %39.9% (26)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DEN at 80%.
H2H EDGE
DEN has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against LV.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.4-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 80% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 11.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 80% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.001 against DEN -0.041.
