TEN @ DAL – Week 11 2026
TEN
DAL
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DAL 72%Projected margin: -5.9
DAL
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.167
37.4%Offense success %46.6%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DAL at 72%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DAL generates 0.097 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DAL goes for it on 4th down 30% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
DAL scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.0 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for DAL. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DAL market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds4,552
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@TENW17 2022 | DAL 27, TEN 13 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs DAL
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 72% win probability. The margin models project DAL by 5.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Dallas Cowboys, 27-13 in Week 17 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: TEN -0.260 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
