NYJ @ LAC – Week 11 2026
NYJ
LAC
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
LAC
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: LAC 77%Projected margin: -8.5
LAC
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-8.5
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.127Offense EPA / play-0.024
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.083
40.7%Offense success %43.1%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: LAC at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
LAC generates -0.024 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.5-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for LAC. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | LAC market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds3,727
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NYJW9 2023 | LAC 27, NYJ 6 | LAC | W |
| NYJ@LACW11 2020 | NYJ 28, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs LAC
Who is favored in New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers?
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 77% win probability. The margin models project LAC by 8.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers game?
Los Angeles Chargers, 27-6 in Week 9 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Los Angeles Chargers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: NYJ -0.274 against LAC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
