NO @ CHI – Week 11 2026
NO
CHI
NO
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CHI 69%Projected margin: -5.1
CHI
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.018
42.0%Offense success %45.8%
41.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors CHI at 69%.
RED ZONE
CHI converts 82% in the red zone vs 67% for NO. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
CHI scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.1 for NO. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for CHI. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | CHI market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
R.Shaheed44 rec · 499 yd · 2 TD
D.Vele25 rec · 293 yd · 2 TD
VS
2,384PASSyds3,942
875RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@CHIW7 2025 | NO 14, CHI 26 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NOW9 2023 | CHI 17, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NO@CHIW8 2020 | NO 26, CHI 23 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CHI
Who is favored in New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 69% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears game?
Chicago Bears, 14-26 in Week 7 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New Orleans Saints or the Chicago Bears?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: NO -0.029 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
