Saints vs Bears – Week 11 2026
NO
CHI
NO
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bears over the Saints at 74% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CHI 74%Our line: CHI -8.7
80% range around our line: NO by 9 to CHI by 26. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -8.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
72%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
| SPORTSBOOK | NO | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +230 | -285 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.148Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.054 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
+0.094 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
43.1% (15)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: CHI at 74%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
CHI generates 0.023 EPA/play on offense. NO's defense allows 0.094. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
CHI goes for it on 4th down 42% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 8.7-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for CHI. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@CHIW7 2025 | NO 14, CHI 26 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NOW9 2023 | CHI 17, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NO@CHIW8 2020 | NO 26, CHI 23 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 74% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 8.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Chicago Bears at 74% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NO 14, CHI 26 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Chicago Bears: NO -0.148 against CHI +0.008.
