Saints vs Bears – Week 8 2020
NO
CHI
NO
AWAY
26@23
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 26, Chicago Bears 23.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: NO 55%Our line: NO -1.6
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -1.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.033
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (24)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (10)
47.6% (8)Offense success %43.6% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 1.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@CHIW7 2025 | NO 14, CHI 26 | CHI | W |
| CHI@NOW9 2023 | CHI 17, NO 24 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CHI
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 55% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 1.6. The market has NO at -5.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 26, CHI 23. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -5.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 8, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 7.0 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Chicago Bears, NO 14, CHI 26 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against CHI -0.033.
